The development of digital innovation has changed our lives, and marketers can learn vital lessons from how the tech world manages modification, composes Mel Exon.When Gordon Moore determined in the mid 1960`s that the number of components per chip would double every year approximately with a matching decrease in the cost per element, it wasn`t clear whether this was based upon robust scientific data or just a theory that the whole semiconductor industry supported and treated as a practical road map.

More than 3 decades later, it no more mattered: the theory had proved itself as silicon chips continued to diminish in size and got more affordable with every few years.

Dead end ahead

Possibly it wasn`t driven solely by a market road map; software application developers and users likewise required more as the years passed. In either case, user value has actually grown to the level that we now have devices you can hold in your hand that are more powerful than the massive mainframes of old.
There are physical restrictions to just how much even more this can go, however. And, regardless of considerable research into finding an option to silicon, none has actually yet materialized.

As Paolo Gargini, chairman of the market body supervising the road map for semiconductors, comments: “Top-of-the-line microprocessors presently have circuit functions that are around 14 nanometres throughout that`s already smaller than a lot of bacteria’s.” He goes on to question whether anything smaller sized would qualify as a sensible gadget, given the quantum uncertainties surrounding electrons of that size, which would make the transistors unreliable at finest.

And so, lastly, it appears like the chips are down for Moore`s Law.

Built on obsolescence

On one level, this is not unexpected. Innovation has driven modification since the Stone Age, and it`s an industry built on obsolescence; think metals emerging, and bad old stone being gradually edged out.

One could argue that we are always somewhere on an S curve. This is particularly real of new innovations. There is no cool, linear pattern to growth: effective new disability depression innovations hit a point where their growth speeds up tremendously, then, unavoidably, that development slows as markets mature. A new innovation adopts the very same pattern. And repeat.
mooreslaw_660

Rather than mourn the death of Moore`s Law, I`m more interested in looking at what will emerge next. Robotics and artificial intelligence, 3D printing, low-power sensors related to the web of things, not to mention biotechnologies all feel varying degrees of remote from mainstream adoption, however, without doubt, there is a Gordon Moore of the 21st century in a garage somewhere, on the cusp of making an advancement.

Why should we care? I think because there are recent parallels in our industry and a mindset we may benefit from adopting.
Born digital
When digital change started having a real effect on commerce and culture around the early 2000s, the majority of companies that weren`t born digital saw it as a marketing and communications channel just. Businesses learned to use digital to be more responsive, to react to customers, live and interactive.

In the meantime, business born digital have actually transformed categories end-to-end. Transportation with Uber, holidays with Airbnb, home-delivery meals with collectors like Delivered, Facebook for getting in touch with people, Google for info, Amazon for everything else. We know this.

I`ve written here prior to that 2015 seemed like the year when the present crop of technological development appeared to slow and consolidate (top of the S Curve, anyone?). Instead of relax and put our feet up, I suggest we invest at least a few minutes considering what the emerging technologies may represent: hype versus something truly threatening or opportunistic for our classification. Let`s assume that a minimum of some of them will reach traditional maturity at some point from 2020 onwards.

As ShekharBorkar, head of Intel`s advanced microprocessor research, puts it: “The concepts are out there. Our job is to engineer them.”.